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Economist optimistic about soybean markets

Economist optimistic about soybean marketsrnBy Erica QuinlanEmailFollowrnAug. 25, 2020rnSoybean yield and production estimates were both above the range of private forecasts in the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.rnUnited Soybean Board photornCaptionrnCHESTERFIELD, Mo. — John Baize, consulting economist at the U.S. Soybean Export Council, is optimistic about the future of soybeans in the United States.rnrn“It’s easy to see the negative side,” he said during a webinar hosted by Indiana Soybean Alliance and Indiana Corn Growers Association.rnrn“But I think there are a lot of things going on that are positive, even with COVID-19 and the problems we have had with China. We ought to have a record high soybean yield in 2020, according to what USDA projects.rnrn“Yes, that causes the problem of increasing supply. But it’s always better to have more of something to sell. I think we’re going to see extra production this year, and that’s income.”rnrnGlobal soy demand is continuing to grow rapidly, Baize said.rnrnGlobal soy demand in 2020-2021 is forecasted to be almost 16 million tons greater than in 2019-2020 and 25.4 million tons greater than 2018-2019.rnrn“To put that in perspective, 15.97 million tons is more than the consumption of Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia, which are three of the big suppliers in the world,” Baize said. “The 25.35 million tons is bigger than India, Paraguay and Uruguay combined. So, that’s a lot of growth.”rnrnChina soybean imports in 2021 are expected to be 16.46 million tons greater than 2018-2019.rnrn“That’s a lot of growth in soybean imports in China,” Baize said. “They may not come from the U.S. with the big crops we’ve got in South America and elsewhere, but the more China consumes, the better off we are.”rnrnAmerican soybean exports in 2020-2021 are forecasted to be 475 million bushels greater than 2019-2020.rnrnSoybean meal and oil exports are also forecasted to be strong in 2021.rnrn“The U.S. soybean is extremely competitive, it’s getting better, we’re getting higher yields and I think we’re going to be able to compete very well in the future,” Baize said.rnrn“Every year, no matter the challenges we face, we always manage to find the best opportunity out in the world market. And I think that’s happening. We’re making huge sales right now with soybeans.